A school is organising a 'Science Carnival' in which one of the stalls has a two-stage game. In Stage 1, a contestant spins a fair spinner divided into 5 equal sectors numbered 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5. If the spinner lands on a prime number, the contestant advances to Stage 2; otherwise the game ends and the contestant loses. In Stage 2, the contestant draws one card at random from a set of 10 cards numbered 1 to 10. The contestant wins a prize only if the card drawn shows a perfect square.
A school is organising a 'Science Carnival' in which one of the stalls has a two-stage game. In Stage 1, a contestant spins a fair spinner divided into 5 equal sectors numbered 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5. If the spinner lands on a prime number, the contestant advances to Stage 2; otherwise the game ends and the contestant loses.
In Stage 2, the contestant draws one card at random from a set of 10 cards numbered 1 to 10. The contestant wins a prize only if the card drawn shows a perfect square.
Based on the above situation, answer the following questions:
(i) What is the probability that the spinner lands on a prime number in Stage 1? [1 mark]
(ii) Given that the contestant reaches Stage 2, what is the probability of winning a prize? [1 mark]
(iii) A contestant claims: "The probability that I reach Stage 2 AND win a prize is more than 1/4." Is this claim correct? Find the probability of reaching Stage 2 and winning a prize, and justify your answer. [2 marks]
OR
(iii) Two contestants play the game independently. Find the probability that exactly one of them wins a prize (i.e., reaches Stage 2 and picks a perfect-square card). [2 marks]
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The 5 equally likely outcomes on the spinner are: {1, 2, 3, 4, 5}.
Prime numbers in this set: {2, 3, 5} → 3 favourable outcomes.
∴ P(spinner lands on a prime number) = 3/5
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Part (ii) [1 mark]
Cards numbered 1 to 10; perfect squares in this range: {1, 4, 9} → 3 favourable outcomes out of 10.
∴ P(winning a prize | reaches Stage 2) = 3/10
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Part (iii) — Main [2 marks]
Let A = event that contestant reaches Stage 2, and W = event that contestant wins a prize.
The two stages are independent of each other.
P(A) = 3/5 [from part (i)]
P(W | A) = 3/10 [from part (ii)]
⟹ P(reaches Stage 2 AND wins a prize) = P(A) × P(W | A)
⟹ P(A ∩ W) = (3/5) × (3/10) = 9/50
Now, checking the contestant's claim:
1/4 = 12.5/50, but 9/50 < 12.5/50
∴ 9/50 < 1/4
The contestant's claim is NOT correct. The probability of reaching Stage 2 and winning a prize is 9/50, which is less than 1/4.
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Part (iii) — OR [2 marks]
Let p = probability that a single contestant reaches Stage 2 AND wins a prize.
From above, p = P(A) × P(W | A) = (3/5) × (3/10) = 9/50
∴ Probability that a single contestant does NOT win = 1 − 9/50 = 41/50
The two contestants play independently.
P(exactly one of the two wins)
= P(1st wins and 2nd does not) + P(1st does not and 2nd wins)
⟹ = p × (1 − p) + (1 − p) × p
⟹ = 2 × p × (1 − p)
⟹ = 2 × (9/50) × (41/50)
⟹ = 2 × 369/2500
∴ P(exactly one contestant wins) = 738/2500 = 369/1250