Contemporary South Asia

Sources of Conflict in South Asia: • South Asia is one of the world's most conflict-prone regions — home to two nuclear-armed rivals (India and Pakistan), ongoing civil conflicts, poverty, and contested borders. Major Sources of Conflict: 1. India-Pakistan rivalry (see below) 2. Sri Lanka's ethnic conflict: A 26-year civil war (1983–2009) between the Sinhalese-dominated government and the Tamil Tigers (LTTE) ended with the military defeat of the LTTE. 3. Bangladesh: Emerged from the 1971 Bangladesh Liberation War — India's military intervention was decisive. Post-independence, Bangladesh has faced political instability, military coups, and Islamic extremism. 4. Nepal: A Maoist insurgency (1996–2006) ended with the Maoists joining mainstream politics; Nepal transitioned from a monarchy to a republic. 5. Afghanistan: A perpetual zone of conflict — Soviet invasion (1979), civil war, Taliban takeover (1996), US invasion (2001), Taliban return (2021). 6. Water disputes: The Indus Waters Treaty (1960) between India and Pakistan has largely managed river water sharing — but is under stress. India-Pakistan Relations: • The India-Pakistan relationship has been defined by: Partition violence (1947), three full-scale wars (1947, 1965, 1971), and the Kargil conflict (1999). Key Issues: 1. Kashmir: The central dispute — India and Pakistan both claim the entire territory of Jammu and Kashmir; the Line of Control (LoC) divides it. 2. Cross-border terrorism: India accuses Pakistan of supporting militant groups (Lashkar-e-Taiba, Jaish-e-Mohammed) that carry out attacks in India (2001 Parliament attack, 2008 Mumbai attacks). 3. Nuclear dimension: Both countries tested nuclear weapons in 1998 — raising the stakes of any conflict catastrophically. 4. Moments of dialogue: Simla Agreement (1972), Lahore Declaration (1999), Agra Summit (2001), Composite Dialogue Process — periodic attempts at normalisation, repeatedly derailed by terrorism incidents. 5. SAARC (South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation): Established in 1985, hampered by India-Pakistan tensions — trade between South Asian countries is far below potential.

SAARC (South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation): • SAARC is a regional intergovernmental organisation of South Asian countries — India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Nepal, Bhutan, the Maldives, and Afghanistan (admitted 2007). • Established by the Dhaka Declaration (1985). • Secretariat: Kathmandu, Nepal. Objectives: • Accelerate economic and social development in member states. • Promote regional cooperation in trade, culture, and science. • Promote peace and stability in the region. Key Institutions and Agreements: • SAFTA (South Asian Free Trade Area, 2006): A free trade agreement — but with significant exceptions and non-tariff barriers. • SAARC Development Fund: Finances regional development projects. • SAARC Summits: Held every two years — but several have been cancelled or delayed. Challenges to Regional Cooperation in South Asia: 1. India-Pakistan Rivalry: • The most fundamental obstacle. India and Pakistan have not normalised trade relations — the most natural and economically beneficial partner for each is blocked by political hostility. • Pakistan has blocked India's access to Afghanistan and Central Asia through its territory. • Most SAARC summits are held hostage to India-Pakistan tensions. 2. Asymmetry between India and its neighbours: • India is overwhelmingly dominant in the region — its economy is larger than all other SAARC members combined. • Smaller countries (Nepal, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka) fear being dominated economically and politically by India. 3. Bilateral disputes: • India has disputes with several neighbours: water sharing (Bangladesh, Pakistan, Nepal), border demarcation, political interference. 4. Terrorism: • Pakistan-backed militant groups operating in India have derailed dialogue repeatedly. 5. Domestic politics: • Domestic politics in all countries — nationalism, electoral calculations — often make cooperation difficult. Contrast with ASEAN: • ASEAN — with similar post-colonial diversity — has achieved far deeper integration than SAARC. The key difference is the absence of a dominant rivalry like India-Pakistan within ASEAN.

India's Approach to South Asia: • India's foreign policy toward its South Asian neighbours has been shaped by geography (India is at the centre of the region), size (India's overwhelming dominance), history (Partition, colonial legacies), and security concerns (cross-border terrorism, Chinese influence in the neighbourhood). Historical Overview: 1. Nehru era: Non-alignment, commitment to a peaceful neighbourhood, opposition to great power military presence in the region. 2. Indira Gandhi: More assertive — the 1971 Bangladesh War (military intervention against Pakistan) and the 'Indira Doctrine' (India's right to intervene in neighbouring countries to prevent external interference). 3. Rajiv Gandhi era: Attempted engagement — peace accord with Sri Lanka (1987), but Indian Peacekeeping Force (IPKF) involvement became a military debacle. Rajiv was assassinated by LTTE in 1991. 4. 1990s–2000s: Bilateral engagement, periodic dialogue with Pakistan, economic partnerships with Nepal, Bangladesh, Bhutan. 'Neighbourhood First' Policy: • Articulated by the Modi government (from 2014), the 'Neighbourhood First' policy prioritises South Asian neighbours in India's foreign policy. • Key elements: - Connectivity: Investment in physical connectivity (roads, railways, power grids, pipelines) linking India to its neighbours. - Economic integration: Trade agreements, lines of credit for development projects. - People-to-people contacts: Easing of visa regimes, cultural exchange. - Digital connectivity: Sharing India's digital infrastructure (UPI, Aadhaar) with neighbours. • Modi's first foreign trips as PM were to Bhutan and Nepal — signalling the priority of the neighbourhood. • India has provided COVID vaccines to South Asian neighbours, development aid, and disaster relief. Challenges to the Policy: • Pakistan remains deeply hostile — the India-Pakistan relationship has not normalised. • Chinese influence is growing in Sri Lanka (Hambantota port), Nepal, Bangladesh, and the Maldives — challenging India's traditional dominance. • 'India fatigue' among smaller neighbours — resentment of Indian dominance sometimes pushes them toward China.